Web3 Weekly: Markets Bearish, Pullback to $BTC $60,500 Likely
This is a new project I am piloting — weekly crypto news. I’m considering publishing my thoughts on the cryptocurrency market every week, so follow along with this experiment to see how it progresses.
⏩ TL;DR
Bitcoin broke the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern, pulling down the rest of the Crypto market. A midweek pump after the FOMC meeting stalled out. Curve founder Michael Egorov was liquidated from some very big loans, crashing his liquid staking token $CRV to all-time lows.
📬 In This Issue
- Web3 Headlines — Markets are down
- Fear & Greed Index — 70
- Market Moves — Bearish for Top 100
- Expert Analysis — Technical Roundup, Market Mavericks, & DCA Live
- Dates To Watch — June unlocks and Retail Sales in US
- Top Tweets & Crypto Memes
💎 Sponsored by
This issue is sponsored by Milk Road, which is a much better newsletter than this one.
Subscribe to Milk Road here, and get their daily memes and in-depth analysis.
🗞️ Web3 Headlines
- Bitcoin Pullback to $66K Triggers $250M in Crypto Liquidations — Coindesk
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $200 million in net outflows ahead of FOMC meeting — The Block
- Bitcoin Pullback Does Little Damage To Bullish Chart Bias — Verified Investing
- Ether ETFs Should Be Fully Approved by September, Says SEC Chair Gensler — Coindesk
- Curve founder repays 93% of $10M bad debt stemming from liquidation — CoinTelegraph
😱&💸 Fear & Greed Index
The Fear & Greed Index, according to Milk Road, measures the mood of the crypto market.
Subscribe to their excellent newsletter for daily crypto updates.
📈 Market Moves
This week was bearish for the Top 100 tokens.
- No coins reached a 52-week high, but 33 reached a 52-week low.
- CRV lost 38% after founder HHH was liquidated from many of his positions.
- Swarm $BZZ was the winner this week, gaining 63%.
Bitcoin has created a classic Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe.
If it confirms below the neckline, we could see a pullback to $60,500 — the same distance from the peak of the Head to the neckline from the breakdown.
This is not actionable until it confirms, when a candle closes lower than the first candle closing below the breakdown.
Given the institutional interest and price manipulation, this could be turned around by market makers, so I won’t be entering a short, or exiting my spot positions, until I see confirmation on the daily timeframe.
However, I could also see those who manipulate the markets wanting a lower entry for large amounts of institutional capital — so the price could likely be manipulated either way. What the chart tells us is this is a big bearish signal to be monitored.
There is also a Bearish Divergence on the RSI, which isn’t actionable by itself, but does add a layer of confluence.
🧐 Expert Analysis
[13:26] Technical Roundup with Crypto Cred
TL;DW Takeaways:
📉 BTC Range Strategy: Focus trades at the $60k and $70k extremities; avoid the middle ($65k) for better opportunities.
🔍 Key BTC Levels: Watch the midpoint around $65k for strong market signals; otherwise, wait for moves near $60k or $70k.
📊 ETH ETF Play: Consider buying ETH before ETF approval if you expect a positive outcome, but brace for a potential drop below $3600.
⚖️ Trading Balance: Prefer extreme price levels over mid-range for trades to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
🚫 Avoid Noise: Steer clear of low time-frame, impulsive trades during consolidations; wait for clear breakouts for safer bets.
[1:08:04] DCA Live with CTO Larsson, InvestAnswers, and Rekt Mando
TL;DW Takeaways:
📉 Monitor Mondays: Bitcoin’s best buy day remains Monday. Keep an eye on price levels around $69k for potential entry points or further stagnation.
💹 Watch Basis Trade: Be aware of hedge funds’ basis trade (buying ETFs, shorting futures). This can mislead apparent inflows and affect market dynamics.
🔍 Track Rate Changes: Stay alert to rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts, especially in the US and Europe, as they can impact Bitcoin’s price and investor sentiment.
🚀 Prepare for Breakouts: Watch for significant inflows or buyers. A price move above $72k could trigger short-covering and a rapid upward spike.
🌐 Altcoin Focus: Ethereum ETF news hasn’t spiked prices. Solana’s strong DEX volume could signal growth; consider opportunities in Solana over Ethereum for meme coin and DEX activities.
[30:48] Market Mavericks with Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, and Mike McGlone
TL;DW Takeaways:
📉 Prepare for Deflation: Expect a deflationary trend similar to 1929; be cautious with long positions and consider hedging against downturns.
🔄 Watch for FED Interventions: Stay alert for FED actions to counter deflation; anticipate potential liquidity injections that could stabilize or boost markets.
📊 Monitor Market Signals: Pay attention to historical cycles, commodity prices, and unemployment trends as indicators of market corrections.
💱 Crypto Caution: Despite ETF inflows, Bitcoin is showing weakness; be wary of volatility and potential drops aligned with broader market corrections.
📈 Tech Stock Alert: The surge in tech stocks might be a bubble; evaluate fundamentals and be ready for a pullback if market exuberance wanes.
👀 Dates To Watch
- 14 June — $73m worth of $STRK is unlocking, roughly 5% of the total supply
- 17 June — $CHZ Chiliz Dragon8 hard fork
- 19 June — US Retail Sales m/m released, UK CPI y/y
- 25 June — Stader will burn 20% of $SD supply, valued at $30 million
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😁 Crypto Memes
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❝ Investment Quote
“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
— Charlie Munger
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is not financial advice, and the author, Caelan Huntress, is not a financial advisor, he’s just a dude on the internet. Do your own research, wipe your own nose, and read this newsletter for education and entertainment purposes only.
👋 Until Next Week
I’m playing with this format, and I will publish sporadically. Stay tuned!
- Caelan Huntress
